Where are we now?
Statuses describe evidence, not people. “Missed” means a date passed without the outcome. Every status is dated.
| ID | Claim | Status |
|---|---|---|
| CR-K36 | UN to establish an Independent International Scientific Panel on AI (40 experts) and a Global Dialogue on AI Governance. Made · UN General Assembly | Achieved |
| CR-K23 | AI can produce science recognised at the highest level. Made · Nobel Committee (AlphaFold) | Achieved |
| CR-N04 | Barakah generates about 40 TWh a year, "up to 25% of the UAE's electricity needs"; full fleet in commercial operation. Made · ENEC (operator) | AchievedCompany-reported |
| CR-K33 | EU AI Act obligations for general-purpose AI models apply from 2 Aug 2025. Made · European Union | Achieved |
| CR-K29 | Masdar/EWEC round-the-clock project (5.2GW PV + 19GWh storage, 1GW continuous) operational in 2027; "world-first" (Masdar). Made · Masdar | On trackCompany-reported |
| CR-C01 | Stargate UAE: 1GW cluster; first 200MW expected to go live in 2026. Made · OpenAI with G42, Oracle, NVIDIA, Cisco, SoftBank | On trackCompany-reported |
| CR-K22 | The length of tasks AI agents can complete doubles roughly every 7 months. Made · METR | On track |
| CR-K26 | "The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months." Made · Sam Altman | On trackEvidence dated |
| CR-C04 | Campus work "on track" despite redesign. Made · G42 (via Reuters/CNBC) | EmergingCompany-reported |
| CR-K30 | Employment of 22–25-year-olds in highly AI-exposed occupations is falling relative to less-exposed peers. Made · Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Canaries") | EmergingDisputed |
| CR-G08 | 50% of UAE federal government sectors, services and operations to run on agentic AI "for autonomous execution and decision-making" within two years; every federal employee trained. Made · UAE Government | Emerging |
| CR-K32 | Frontier models may give meaningful bio/chem uplift to novices; developers added safeguards because they could not exclude it. Made · International AI Safety Report 2026 | Emerging |
| CR-K31 | AI lowers the barrier to sophisticated, largely autonomous cyberattacks. Made · Anthropic | Emerging |
| CR-K03 | "2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights." Made · Sam Altman | EmergingDisputed |
| CR-K14 | AI's impacts will unfold over decades, like electricity, as institutions adapt. Made · Narayanan & Kapoor | EmergingDisputed |
| CR-R08 | "AI seems likely to enable much better propaganda and surveillance." Made · Dario Amodei | Emerging |
| CR-K02 | The goal is to make intelligence and energy extremely cheap (manifesto). Made · Marc Andreessen | Emerging |
| CR-G03 | 25% of Dubai trips autonomous by 2030. Dubai RTA, Self-Driving Transport Strategy | Emerging |
| CR-K35 | EU high-risk (Annex III) rules apply from 2 Dec 2027; Annex I from 2 Aug 2028. Made · European Union (AI Omnibus) | Not yet |
| CR-N05 | Data-centre electricity roughly doubles from 485 TWh (2025) to 950 TWh (2030), about 3% of global demand. Made · IEA, update | Not yet |
| CR-C02 | First 200MW phase "in place and ready at some point in the third quarter" of 2026. Made · Khaldoon Al Mubarak (Mubadala) | Not yetCompany-reported |
| CR-C08 | HUMAIN–AMD–Cisco JV: up to 1GW of AI infrastructure by 2030. Made · HUMAIN / AMD / Cisco | Not yet |
| CR-C07 | Up to 600,000 NVIDIA GPUs over three years (KSA and US); xAI 500MW+ flagship; AWS "AI Zone" up to 150,000 GPUs. Made · HUMAIN / NVIDIA / xAI / AWS | Not yet |
| CR-E04 | Microsoft will help train 1 million people in the UAE by end-2027. Made · Microsoft | Not yetCompany-reported |
| CR-K04 | "2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world." Made · Sam Altman | Not yet |
| CR-K05 | "In the 2030s, intelligence and energy… are going to become wildly abundant." Made · Sam Altman | Not yet |
| CR-K13 | LawZero will develop "Scientist AI", a non-agentic system to act as a guardrail. Made · Yoshua Bengio / LawZero | Not yet |
| CR-K24 | AGI "in the next five to ten years". Made · Demis Hassabis | Not yet |
| CR-K25 | The end of disease: "within reach. Maybe within the next decade or so". Made · Demis Hassabis | Not yet |
| CR-E02 | 170m jobs created and 92m displaced by 2030, net +78m; 22% of jobs change. Made · WEF Future of Jobs 2025 (employer survey) | Not yet |
| CR-T03 | "There's absolutely no way … that autoregressive LLMs, the type that we know today, will reach human intelligence." Scaling "is saturating". Made · Yann LeCun (then Meta) | Not yetDisputed |
| CR-G02 | Abu Dhabi to be "the world's first fully AI-native government across all digital services by 2027"; 200+ AI solutions; 100% sovereign cloud. Made · Abu Dhabi Government (DGE) | Not yet |
| CR-G07 | Egypt National AI Strategy, second edition (2025–2030). Made · Egypt MCIT | Not yet |
| CR-T01 | "Powerful AI" (smarter than a Nobel laureate across most fields, able to act autonomously for days) "could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer." Made · Dario Amodei (Anthropic) | Not yet |
| CR-T02 | After powerful AI arrives, AI could compress "the next 50-100 years of biological progress" into 5–10 years. Made · Dario Amodei | Not yet |
| CR-T08 | Human-level AI / AGI by 2029; the Singularity (a "millionfold" expansion of intelligence) by 2045. Made · Ray Kurzweil | Not yet |
| CR-G05 | Oman: top-50 place in the Oxford Insights Government AI Readiness Index; second phase 2026–2030. Made · MTCIT, Oman | Not yet |
| CR-K28 | AI will raise total factor productivity by no more than 0.66% over ten years. Made · Daron Acemoglu | Not yet |
| CR-R07 | Eventually an IAEA-like international authority may be needed for systems above a capability threshold. Made · OpenAI (Altman, Brockman, Sutskever) | Not yet |
| CR-K07 | Call for an indefinite, worldwide moratorium on large training runs, enforced by international agreement and monitoring of hardware. Made · Eliezer Yudkowsky | Not yet |
| CR-K27 | Generative AI could raise global GDP by about 7% over ten years. Made · Goldman Sachs (Briggs & Kodnani) | Not yet |
| CR-G06 | Jordan AI Strategy and Implementation Plan: 68 projects across 12 sectors. Made · Jordan MoDEE | Not yet |
| CR-K16 | Deep learning is "hitting a wall"; scaling laws are "mere observations that might not hold forever". Made · Gary Marcus | Not yetDisputed |
| CR-G04 | Saudi Arabia among the top 15 AI nations by 2030; up to 20,000 data/AI specialists; about US$20bn investment; 300 start-ups. Made · SDAIA, NSDAI | Not yet |
| CR-K21 | "By the end of the century … we will still be wondering if the singularity is near." Made · Paul Allen & Mark Greaves | Not yet |
| CR-K20 | "I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030." Made · Vernor Vinge | Not yet |
| CR-G01 | UAE to be a global leader in AI by 2031 (strategy cites up to AED 335bn of extra growth). UAE Government, National AI Strategy 2031 | Not yet |
| CR-K09 | "Pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4." Made · Future of Life Institute open letter | Missed |
| CR-K19 | "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence." Made · Vernor Vinge | MissedDisputed |
| CR-C03 | 5GW UAE–US AI Campus: "largest outside the US"; nearly half the global population within 3,200 km. Made · US Embassy UAE / US Commerce | Superseded |
| CR-N01 | Data-centre electricity about 415 TWh (1.5% of global) in 2024, rising to about 945 TWh by 2030. Made · IEA, Energy and AI | Superseded |
| CR-K34 | EU AI Act high-risk rules to apply from 2 Aug 2026. Made · European Union | Superseded |
| CR-S07 | UAE: 73.3% of working-age people used generative AI in June 2026 (highest globally); global 18.8%; Global North 28.8% vs South 16.2%. Made · Microsoft AI Diffusion Report | ReferenceCompany-reported |
| CR-S08 | The region's "structural advantages have not yet changed" despite the war. Made · RANE analyst via Rest of World | Reference |
| CR-E03 | "Early evidence shows no effect on overall employment, but some signs of declining demand for early-career workers in some AI-exposed occupations." Made · International AI Safety Report 2026 | Reference |
| CR-R04 | On loss of control: "Current systems lack the capabilities to pose such risks, but they are improving in relevant areas." Models increasingly distinguish test from deployment. Made · International AI Safety Report 2026 | Reference |
| CR-R05 | 12 companies published or updated frontier AI safety frameworks in 2025. Made · International AI Safety Report 2026 | Reference |
| CR-T06 | AI progress to 2030 could plateau, continue or accelerate. Capabilities are "jagged". Made · International AI Safety Report 2026 | Reference |
| CR-R10 | Neuralink: 21 trial participants; "zero serious device-related adverse events" so far. Made · Neuralink | ReferenceCompany-reported |
| CR-K38 | Misinformation/disinformation ranked 2nd most severe global risk (2-year); adverse outcomes of AI 5th (10-year). Made · WEF Global Risks Report 2026 | Reference |
| CR-S01 | Falcon H1R 7B outperforms larger models on key benchmarks; 88.1% on AIME-24. Made · TII | ReferenceCompany-reported |
| CR-K39 | Frontier AI is concentrated and becoming less transparent: industry produced 90%+ of notable models in 2025; transparency index average fell from 58 to 40. Made · Stanford AI Index 2026 | Reference |
| CR-K11 | "25% chance that things go really, really badly"; 75% really, really well. Made · Dario Amodei | Reference |
| CR-K08 | *If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies*: argues building superintelligence would lead to human extinction; says creation "can still be prevented". Made · Yudkowsky & Soares | Reference |
| CR-S02 | K2 Think "outperforms flagship reasoning models that are 20X larger". Made · G42 / MBZUAI | ReferenceCompany-reported |
| CR-C05 | A UAE cluster could serve people "within a 2,000-mile radius, reaching up to half the world's population". Made · OpenAI | ReferenceCompany-reported |
| CR-C06 | The UAE will be "the first country in the world to enable ChatGPT nationwide". Made · OpenAI | ReferenceCompany-reported |
| CR-N02 | "Concerns that AI could accelerate climate change appear overstated, as do expectations that AI alone will address the issue." Made · IEA | Reference |
| CR-N03 | AI-based fault detection can cut outage durations by 30–50%. Made · IEA | Reference |
| CR-K15 | Existential-risk probabilities "lack meaningful epistemic foundations". Made · Narayanan & Kapoor | Reference |
| CR-R02 | Median researcher: 5% chance of "extremely bad outcomes (e.g. human extinction)". 38–51% give at least 10%. About 68% think good outcomes more likely than bad. Made · Grace et al. | Reference |
| CR-R03 | More than half of researchers say misinformation, authoritarian control and worsening inequality warrant substantial or extreme concern. Made · Grace et al. | Reference |
| CR-T05 | Full automation of all occupations at 50% probability around 2116. Made · Grace et al. | Reference |
| CR-K10 | 10–20% chance AI leads to human extinction within three decades. Made · Geoffrey Hinton | Reference |
| CR-R06 | Experimental evidence of "alignment faking" in Claude 3 Opus under artificial conditions (12% prompted; 78% alignment-faking reasoning after RL). Authors: does not show malicious goals. Made · Anthropic Alignment Science + Redwood Research | Reference |
| CR-S05 | Seha Virtual Hospital is the world's largest virtual hospital (Guinness World Records). Made · Saudi MoH / Guinness | Reference |
| CR-S06 | NLLB-200 improves translation quality by an average of 44% (BLEU) over prior state of the art, across 200 languages. Made · Meta NLLB Team (Nature) | Reference |
| CR-E01 | About 40% of global jobs exposed to AI (about 60% in advanced economies); roughly half of exposed advanced-economy jobs may benefit, half may see lower demand. Risk of wider inequality. Made · IMF (Kristalina Georgieva) | Reference |
| CR-K37 | No evidence that AI-enabled disinformation changed UK, French or EU 2024 election results; wider harms documented. Made · Alan Turing Institute CETaS | Reference |
| CR-K01 | "We believe Artificial Intelligence can save lives – if we let it." "We believe any deceleration of AI will cost lives." Made · Marc Andreessen | Reference |
| CR-T04 | Aggregate forecast: 50% chance that unaided machines outperform humans at every task by 2047; 10% by 2027. Made · Grace et al., survey of 2,778 AI researchers | Reference |
| CR-K12 | Extinction from AI by 2100: superforecasters median 0.38%, AI experts median 3%. Made · Forecasting Research Institute (XPT) | Reference |
| CR-R01 | "Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war." Made · Center for AI Safety statement | Reference |
| CR-K06 | "The most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI, under anything remotely like the current circumstances, is that literally everyone on Earth will die." Made · Eliezer Yudkowsky | Reference |
| CR-K18 | Large language models as "stochastic parrots": risks of size, cost, bias and documentation. Made · Bender, Gebru, McMillan-Major, Mitchell | Reference |
| CR-K17 | Worrying about evil killer AI is like worrying about "overpopulation on Mars". Made · Andrew Ng | Reference |
| CR-T07 | Superintelligence: "any intellect that greatly exceeds the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest". Made · Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence (OUP) | Reference |
| CR-R09 | Content Credentials are "not a cure-all for misinformation". They show provenance, not truth. C2PA | Reference |
| CR-S03 | Omar Al Olama was the world's first minister for AI (Oct 2017). WGS / US Embassy | Reference |
| CR-S04 | MBZUAI is "the world's first graduate-level, research-based AI university". MBZUAI | ReferenceCompany-reported |