CR-K16
Not yetDisputed
Deep learning is "hitting a wall"; scaling laws are "mere observations that might not hold forever".
- Claim made
- Who
- Gary Marcus
- Target date
- None stated
- Status checked
- 28 September 2026
Source
Evidence to date
Since 2022 gains continued (METR doubling, METR TH1.1, 29 Jan 2026; SWE-bench Verified 60%→near 100% in a year, AI Index 2026 report page); weaknesses persist in planning and reliability (AI Index 2026 takeaways).
Next indicator
Evidence of plateau on hard, novel tasks