CR-K26
On trackEvidence dated
"The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months."
- Claim made
- Who
- Sam Altman
- Target date
- Trend (no deadline)
- Status checked
- 28 September 2026
Source
Evidence to date
Price declines at fixed performance ranged 9x–900x a year by task; about 40x a year for GPT-4-level on GPQA (Epoch AI, 12 Mar 2025). More than 280-fold fall, Nov 2022–Oct 2024 (AI Index 2025). Newest data are from early 2025; Epoch warns the fastest declines may not persist.
Next indicator
Updated Epoch / AI Index price series (priority)