CR-T01
Not yet
"Powerful AI" (smarter than a Nobel laureate across most fields, able to act autonomously for days) "could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer."
- Claim made
- Who
- Dario Amodei (Anthropic)
- Target date
- 2026 (earliest); review Jan 2027
- Status checked
- 28 September 2026
Source
Evidence to date
29 Jan 2026: best measured 50% time horizon about 320 minutes on software tasks (Claude Opus 4.5), i.e. hours, not days (METR TH1.1, 29 Jan 2026). 3 Feb 2026: capabilities "jagged" (IASR 2026).
Next indicator
Any independent evaluation showing multi-day autonomous work across most fields; METR updates; AI Safety Report 2027