On 28 February 2026 a regional war began. This thread follows what can be dated after that day for Gulf cables, cloud regions and AI campuses. Intelligence Age Gulf wrote the page on 30 September 2026 and updated it on 22 October 2026. It does not claim the site was publishing in February, and it does not take a side in the war.
The 2026 war, Gulf cables and campuses
28 February 2026
Hostilities begin — the news day this thread starts from
A war involving the United States, Israel and Iran began on 28 February 2026. The BBC later referred to the time “before hostilities began on 28 February”. Rest of World, writing on 4 March, described how the opening days disrupted the routes that carry the Gulf’s data. Our resilience article uses this day. This thread starts there and follows what can be dated after it. It does not comment on the causes or conduct of the war.
4 March 2026
Rest of World reports Red Sea and Hormuz closed to commercial traffic
On 4 March 2026 Rest of World reported that, for the first time, the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz were both effectively closed to commercial traffic, and that 17 submarine cables pass through the Red Sea alone. It also reported that the UAE intercepted 165 ballistic missiles, 2 cruise missiles and 541 drones over a single weekend. Those counts come from that one report and are attributed to it.
17 June 2026
A US–Iran memorandum of understanding is meant to reopen Hormuz
The BBC reported on 17 June 2026 that a 14-point US–Iran agreement, known as a memorandum of understanding, had been signed and was set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera reported on 17 August that the memorandum had collapsed within a month of signing and expired that day without a final deal.
11 September 2026
Reuters: the UAE is revising the 5GW AI campus plan
Reuters reported on 11 September 2026, citing six people familiar with the matter, that the UAE is revising the 5GW UAE–US AI Campus. Four of them said it would now likely be a network of data centres across the country rather than one campus in Abu Dhabi. Authorities were also considering air defences and building some sites underground. G42 told Reuters that work on the AI campus was progressing as planned. Reuters said it could not determine how the changes might affect costs and timelines. CNBC reported the Reuters findings on 15 September.
15 September 2026
AWS says it cannot restore some Bahrain and UAE resources
On 15 September 2026 AWS said it could not restore resources and data hosted only in its Bahrain region or in one of its UAE availability zones, about six months after drones struck two of its data centres in the UAE and a nearby strike damaged a facility in Bahrain. CNBC and The National reported the statement. AWS said it was still working to restore two other affected UAE zones and expected to say more about Bahrain in early 2027.
26 September 2026
No Hormuz deal in force as of late September
Al Jazeera reported on 26 September 2026 that President Trump rejected an Iranian plan to reopen the strait within seven days. A report the next day said the two sides had moved further from a deal.
13 October 2026
Al Jazeera: hostilities largely paused, but cables and data centres named in a warning
Al Jazeera wrote on 13 October 2026 that active hostilities had largely ended since the June memorandum, although attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz had continued. It reported that Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, had warned that cables, data centres and AI facilities across the region could be attacked if war with the United States resumed. The same article reported Microsoft’s September plan to invest more than $10 billion in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE through 2030, with a focus on “digital resilience”.
21 October 2026
Hormuz still closed in late October; indirect talks continue
Al Jazeera reported on 4 October 2026 that the strait had been largely blocked and disrupted for more than seven months, and quoted Iran’s parliament speaker as saying it would not open until Iran’s conditions were met. On 21 October The National reported Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, as saying that indirect talks with the US were continuing through Pakistan and Qatar, and that “until an agreement or understanding is reached regarding this strait, it will not be open to everyone.” As of those reports no agreement was in force. That is the latest status we opened, not a prediction.
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